The AFC West is filled with all kinds of different IDP outlooks. Rookies are entering the field and veterans have moved on from the field. Here are the players to watch and then some of the eventual winners to have on your dynasty IDP rosters.
Denver Broncos IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
The returning players of significance in my IDP outlook include Randy Gregory, Baron Browning, D.J. Jones, Nik Bonitto, and Jonathon Cooper.
Gregory was a big signing for the Broncos last year at five years for $70 million. Year one in 2022 started off great as Gregory accumulated 9 tackles (6 solo), 2 tackles for a loss, 7 QB hits, 2 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles in his first 4 games. He suffered a torn meniscus in his knee in Week 4 which basically ended his season. If healthy, the 30-year-old will get every opportunity to play at least 60% of the defensive snaps and produce in the DE/Edge top 24 scorers.
Browning is going into his third year with the Broncos. After showing incredible promise in the second half of his rookie season, Browning took a step back in his second year. As a rookie, Browning delivered 57 tackles (32 solo) in the 9 games he finished the season with. In his second year, Browning's role seemed to shift a little bit and his tackle numbers dropped significantly. I believe he will be a force to deal with in 2023.
Jones is a solid, if not spectacular option in defensive tackle required leagues. After spending his first five years with the San Francisco 49ers, Jones signed a three-year $30 million contract with the Broncos. In his first year, Jones posted 34 tackles (22 solo), 3 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, 2 sacks, and 6 passes defended while missing the last 2 games of the season. I think 2023 will even be better.
Bonitto and Cooper look to be backups and will not have significant play time without an injury. Based on 2022, the outlook of injury fill-in looks to be promising.
Zach Allen will be a surprise starter for many IDP rosters
The newcomers to the Broncos DE/Edge group include Zach Allen and Frank Clark. After spending his first four years with the Arizona Cardinals, Allen signed a three-year $45.75 million contract. Allen has improved every year, and if the trend continues with the Broncos, I could see Allen posting 60 tackles with 10 sacks. I am not sure what Clark has left in the tank. He has not broken six sacks since 2019. At 30 years old, he will probably be a rotational player at about 30-40% of defensive snaps.
Linebacker
The returning players of significance for my IDP outlook would be Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton.
This is the final year of Jewell's contract and he wants to get paid. He delivered 128 tackles (70 solo), 7 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, 2 1/2 sacks, 4 passes defended, 2 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries in just 13 games. Jewell should duplicate his per-game numbers as long as he is healthy.
Singleton is a tackling machine. He has improved his numbers every year, but it will be tough to improve those numbers in 2023. Singleton posted 163 tackles (101 solo), 6 tackles for a loss, 3 QB hits, 3 passes defended, and a forced fumble. He just signed a three-year $18 million contract this off-season.
The newcomer worth mentioning in the IDP outlook is third-round rookie linebacker, Drew Sanders. I do not believe he will have a substantial impact until halfway through the season. But, when he gets his chance, the 6' 5" 233 lb athletic freak will take advantage and earn his spot for 2024.
Defensive Back
The returning players of significance for my IDP outlook in Safety Justin Simmons and Cornerback Patrick Surtain.
Simmons has been a consistent tackle machine for six straight years now. He will turn 30 this season but shows no signs of slowing down. After playing every game in four of the past five seasons, he missed five games last year due to a thigh injury. He has averaged nearly six tackles per game over the past six years. That will continue in 2023.
Surtain has been outstanding and produced since he was drafted as the ninth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. In cornerback-required leagues, Surtain is a top starter. His first two years have netted him 118 tackles (91 solo), 3 tackles for a loss, 1 QB hit, 24 passes defended, 6 interceptions, 1 touchdown, and a forced fumble. He will only get better.
The newcomers worth watching are cornerback Riley Moss and safety JL Skinner. Both players are incoming rookies with Moss being a third-round pick and Skinner a sixth-round pick. I believe their value will rise as the season moves on.
Kansas City Chiefs IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
The returning players of significance in my IDP outlook include Chris Jones and George Karlaftis.
Chris Jones is a monster on the interior of the Chiefs' defensive line. The 29-year-old is a very consistent and disruptive player that scores points in all IDP categories. 2022 was a career-high in tackles for him. Unfortunately, Jones is holding out right now for a new contract, but all beliefs are he will be in training camp.
Karlaftis started slow in his rookie year with just a half sack in his first 10 games. Those last seven games of his rookie season had him deliver 5.5 sacks. He also posted 15 tackles (11 solo), 7 tackles for a loss, 6 QB hits, 2 passes defended, and 2 fumble recoveries. He has cemented his place on the edge of a pretty good defense and should get 70% or more of the defensive snaps.
The newcomers to the Chiefs for this IDP outlook include Charles Omenihu and Felix Anudike-Uzomah.
The Chiefs add a first-rounder to the defensive line mix
With their first-round pick in this recent draft, the Chiefs selected Anudike-Uzomah to fill a void on the defensive line. Playing for Kansas State, he had a combined 96 tackles (67 solo), 25.5 tackles for a loss, 19.5 sacks, 1 pass defended, and 8 forced fumbles in his final 2 seasons.
Also added to the defensive line was Omenihu who they signed as a free agent. He played last year with the San Francisco 49ers as a rotational player. Omenihu played 50% or more of the defensive snaps in 11 games and produced 20 tackles (7 solo), 3 tackles for a loss, 16 QB hits, 4.5 sacks, a pass defended, and a forced fumble. He could be a sneaky surprise.
Linebacker
The returning players of significance in my IDP outlook include Nick Bolton and Willie Gay.
Bolton is an easy set-and-forget linebacker for your roster. All he has done in his first two years in the league is an incredible combined 292 tackles. His second year was awesome with 180 tackles (108 solo), 9 tackles for a loss, 6 QB hits, 2 sacks, 6 passes defended, 2 interceptions, and a forced fumble. If you are lucky enough to have him, keep him and start him every week.
Gay is going into his fourth year and just had his best statistical season yet. Playing just about 70% of the defensive snaps, while missing four games, posted 88 tackles (51 solo), 9 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, 2.5 sacks, 8 passes defended, 1 interception, and 1 fumble recovery. He is a good bye-week candidate for your team.
Tranquill joins the Chiefs' linebacker unit.
The newcomer to the linebacker group is a fellow AFC West player Drue Tranquill.
After playing his first four years with the Los Angeles Chargers, Tranquill signed a one-year prove-it contract with the Chiefs. He should make an immediate impact on the defending Super Bowl champions' IDP roster. Tranquill had a nice final season with the Chargers in producing 146 tackles (95 solo), 10 tackles for a loss, 8 QB hits, 5 sacks, 4 passes defended, 1 interception, and 1 forced fumble. He might be good enough to play 75% of the defensive snaps. Watch the pre-season and decide how hard you want to pursue him.
Defensive Back
The returning players of significance in my IDP outlook would include L'Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie, and Justin Reid.
Sneed was the top-scoring cornerback in all of IDP scoring. In his case, three was a charm. Sneed delivered 108 tackles (75 solo), 5 tackles for a loss, 5 QB hits, 3.5 sacks, 11 passes defended, 3 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery in his third year. Can he repeat those numbers? Probably not, but he will be close. I would not let him off my roster if I had him as the Chiefs will be in multiple shootouts. The opportunity for Sneed to repeat will be present.
McDuffie would be the other returning cornerback that you might want to obtain on your roster. The 2022 first-round pick started game one and promptly hurt his hamstring. He then missed the next six games. Upon returning in week nine, McDuffie started the rest of the year and posted very productive numbers. In those final 10 games, he delivered 43 tackles (27 solo), 1 tackle for loss, 1 QB hit, 1 sack, 7 passes defended, and a forced fumble.
Reid returns for his second year in the Chiefs defensive backfield. Last year he produced a nice 83 tackles (59 solo), 2 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, 1 sack, and 7 passes defended. Most of his points come off of tackles. I see a much better year for Reid in 2023 because I see more turnover plays produced by him.
Mike Edwards becomes the newest member of the Chiefs defensive backfield.
Edwards played his first four years in Tampa Bay and produced his career-best in 2022. He is playing on a one-year contract worth just $3 million. 2022 had Edwards produce 82 tackles (52 solo), 3 tackles for a loss, 2 QB hits, 1 sack, 3 passes defended, an interception for a touchdown, a forced fumble, and 3 fumble recoveries. He will fit in very nicely with the Chiefs.
Los Angeles Chargers IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
The returning players of significance in my IDP outlook include Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Morgan Fox.
Bosa is a perennial Pro Bowler when he plays a good portion of the season. The problem is he has only played a complete season in just three of his seven seasons. Availability is the best ability for any IDP player. The risk can be worth the reward if you have solid backups. In those 3 seasons combined, he has posted 188 tackles (137 solo), 34 tackles for loss, 72 QB hits, 34.5 sacks, 1 pass defended, 12 forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. Enter at your own risk.
At 32 years of age, Mack can still disrupt an offense. Unlike Bosa, he doesn't miss many games. Playing in all 17 games and achieving 80% or more of the defensive snaps, Mack continues to shine. He isn't the top-five player he used to be, but does put up statistics. The more Bosa plays, the better it is for Mack. With Bosa only playing 165 defensive snaps in 2022, the opposing offenses were able to focus on Mack. Mack still posted 50 tackles (33 solo), 12 tackles for a loss, 12 QB hits, 8 sacks, 2 passes defended, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries. He is worth rostering.
Guess who tied for #12 in sacks out of DTs?
In his first year with the Chargers, Fox kept getting stronger and earned the starting spot for the final eight games, and topped out at 73% of the defensive snaps. His 6.5 sacks were tied for #12 out of all the DTs in the league. Fox also added 38 tackles (24 solo), 8 tackles for a loss, and 11 QB hits. It was his best year as a pro.
Joseph-Day is the other DT to have played his first year as a Charger. He didn't have the sack numbers but did post 56 tackles (27 solo), 9 tackles for a loss, 6 QB hits, 2 sacks, a pass defended, an interception, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. Solid if not spectacular consistent numbers every week. A fine DT in those leagues that require them.
The newcomer to the group is the second-round pick out of USC. Tuli Tuipulotu is another Edge that the Chargers need to fill in for injury or rest. He was special in college posting 13.5 sacks in his final year at USC. The Chargers hope to have him continue his success. I believe he makes an impact, but hit-and-miss variety.
Linebacker
The returning players of significance in my IDP outlook include Kenneth Murray.
The days of Murray as a linebacker are numbered. The proof is in the actions of the Chargers. The Chargers have been very patient, but, in his 3rd year, the numbers just don't add up to a starting linebacker in the NFL. The former first-round pick delivered just 76 tackles (50 solo), 7 tackles for a loss, 4 QB hits, 1 sack, 3 passes defended, 1 interception, and a forced fumble. Do not roster him in any scenario.
The newcomers include Eric Kendricks and Daiyan Henley.
Kendricks is a NFL free agent signing from the Vikings where he played a solid role for eight years. Kendricks will provide the leadership and the production to move the Chargers' defense into the upper half of the NFL. He brings an average of 115 tackles (72 solo), 7 tackles for a loss, 6 passes defended, and an interception per season. Kendricks set a career mark for solo tackles in 2022. He is a solid player to roster for 2023.
Henley was a third-round pick out of Washington State. He figures to claim the other starting LB role by mid-season. All he did was post 200 tackles in his final two years in college.
Defensive Back
The returning players of significance in my IDP outlook include Derwin James and Asante Samuel.
Simply put, James is a set-and-forget starting safety for any IDP roster you have. He is one of the most consistent and versatile as they come. He could be argued as the top DB in fantasy football. His last two years combined have him at 233 tackles (139 solo), 12 tackles for a loss, 12 QB hits, 6 sacks, 11 passes defended, 4 interceptions, and 5 forced fumbles.
Samuel Jr is a cornerback that needs to be owned in all CB-required leagues. He just completed his second year as a Charger. His combined stats already have him at 100 tackles (81 solo), 2 tackles for a loss, 22 passes defended, 4 interceptions, and a fumble recovery. I believe he will be a top-20 CB and be in your starting lineups consistently.
Las Vegas Raiders IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
The returning players of significance in my IDP outlook include Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones.
Are you aware that Crosby turns just 26 years of age next month? He is the top DE in all of fantasy football. Even better than the consensus best, Nick Bosa. Both are the same age too. The point is, you are starting him each and every week. He plays every snap and has gotten better every year. 2022 had him post 89 tackles (58 solo), 22 tackles for a loss, 36 QB hits, 12.5 sacks, 4 passes defended, 3 forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. Consider yourself lucky if you have Crosby on your roster.
Jones is showing his age and finally slowing down. It is not because of a reduced defensive snap count reduction either. The 33-year-old posted 85% or more of the defensive snaps in half of his games. His 4.5 sacks and 38 tackles last year were the lowest of his career in a season where he played at least 6 games. I would suggest staying away from Jones.
The newcomers to the group are both rookies in Tyree Wilson and Byron Young.
Raiders' rookies will have an impact in 2023.
Wilson was the seventh overall pick in this recent NFL draft. He was uber-productive in his final two years at Texas A&M. Wilson produced a combined 99 tackles (62 solo), 27.5 tackles for loss, 14 sacks, 1 pass defended, 1 forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. I will be an important piece to the success of the Raiders in 2023.
Young was selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft out of Alabama. He was a key player on the Alabama defense in all four years he was there. His four-year career produced a combined 130 tackles (55 solo), 20 tackles for a loss, 7.5 sacks, 3 passes defended, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. DTs don't usually produce real well as a rookie, but the opportunity is there and Young will take advantage of it.
Linebacker
The returning player of significance in my IDP outlook includes Divine Deablo.
The Raiders are still not sure what they have in Diablo. He played Safety in college and was drafted in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft out of Virginia Tech. He started to play more of a box role as a rookie and was moved to Linebacker for 2022. Diablo was on a pace of 150+ tackles when he hurt his forearm on the second play of week nine. He was averaging over 10 tackles a game in his seven games played in 2022. At 6' 3" and 226 lbs, he can use his athleticism to dominate at the point of contact.
The new player of significance in my IDP outlook is Robert Spillane.
Spillane has never been anything special on the field in his first four years with the Pittsburgh Steelers. His best year was 2022 when he produced 79 tackles (52 solo), 4 tackles for a loss, 2 QB hits, 1 sack, and 4 passes defended. Spillane started five games and played 100% of the defensive snaps in those five games. He did not reach 50% of the defensive snaps in seven of the other 11 games he played in. You should look at obtaining this cheap 27-year-old because of the opportunity that is presenting itself to him this year.
Defensive Back
The returning players of significance in my IDP outlook include Tre'von Moehrig and Nate Hobbs.
The Raiders defensive backfield is young and learning on the fly. Moehrig is a third-year player that will have the opportunity to keep his 100% defensive snap count roll that he held the final 11 games of 2022. In those 11 games, Moehrig posted an average of four tackles a game. For deep leagues, I believe he will be valuable enough to be rostered as a backup for you to cover bye weeks and injuries.
In Cornerback required leagues, Hobbs should be rostered. Hobbs missed six games in 2022 due to a hand injury. Playing nearly all the defensive snaps in his 11 games played, Hobbs produced an impressive stat line of 72 tackles (57 solo), 3 tackles for a loss, 1 QB hit, 1 sack, 4 passes defended, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.
The new player of significance in my IDP outlook would be Marcus Epps.
Epps was a free agent signing off of the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles. The 27-year-old is ready to lead the Raider defense. He just completed a career-best year and is ready to take the next step. Epps should improve on the 94 tackles (70 solo), 4 tackles for a loss, 6 passes defended, and a forced fumble. He should play every play on the defensive side as long as he is healthy. Epps is not a bad option for deep IDP leagues.
Thank you for checking out my 2023 Divisional IDP Outlooks article! You can read all of my articles on my IDP Guys author page. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @OldMan_FF and @IDPGuys (we have offense, too), and please consider becoming a subscriber!
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